"One of the Darwin Party’s standard sub-myths is the story of five
mass extinctions in Earth history, the Permian extinction being the
largest. This team notices problems with the story, so they decide to
take a more “nuanced approach” to it.
Finally, the changing narrative of PTT extinctions in the Karoo emphasizes that a more nuanced approach to the end-Permian mass extinction is needed that accounts for the idiosyncrasies of the event
in different geographical areas. Only by recognizing the specific
details of the extinction in different places can the search for
generalizations be successful.
They investigate two exposures of a slope in South Africa called the
Karoo Basin – a much larger feature than the two sample outcrops they
look at.
Assuming the geological time scale,
---they agree together that
the exposures represent 4 million years of evolution. ---They divide up the
slopes into 13 imaginary time intervals of 300,000 years each,
---and
count fossils within each time “bin” they have imagined.
Then come to an
unexpected conclusion that land creatures went extinct ten times slower
than sea creatures in the great Permian Extinction Event. Work all done,
they publish their findings in PNAS, a major US science journal.
Q: How much did they really come to “know” about this
deposit?
A: One way to measure their knowledge is to count the instances
of the word “likely” in the paper. It appears 8 times among the
technical Jargonwocky:
1/ Large outpourings from Siberian Trap volcanism are the likely
trigger of calamitous climatic changes, including a runaway greenhouse
effect and ocean acidification, which had profound consequences for life
on land and in the oceans. [What? Before SUVs?]
2/ Extinction dynamics likely reflect the disappearance of theriodonts …, pareiasaurs …, cynodonts …, and dicynodont species.
3/ Our data show species-level evenness to be relatively stable
throughout the Cistecephalus and Daptocephalus assemblage zones and
across the main extinction acme close to the Daptocephalus–Lystrosaurus
declivis Assemblage Zone boundary, likely because of the retention of some extinction acme-crossing species (Lystrosaurus curvatus, Lystrosaurus maccaigi, Moschorhinus, Promoschorhynchus) alongside the appearance of new species in the inferred recovery phase.
4/ The substantial evidence for significant climatic changes related
to global warming beginning at the end of the Permian period globally likely had disastrous effects on local conditions in the Karoo. These effects were possibly related to aridity and also increased climatic variability.
5/ Nevertheless, it is very likely that fluctuating
climates associated with the end-Permian mass extinction played a
significant role in steadily altering the composition and structure of
tetrapod communities in the uppermost DAZ, eventually causing an
ecosystem collapse marked by the unstable, short-lived communities
observed in the lower Lystrosaurus declivis Assemblage Zone of South Africa’s Karoo Basin.
6/ Therefore, the success of Lystrosaurus and the likely
reason for its cosmopolitan distribution was not caused strictly by the
ecological aftermath of the PTT or Early Triassic environments but
instead had its roots in the Permian.
7/ The rise of the disaster taxon Lystrosaurus well before
the Permian–Triassic boundary indicates that its success did not stem
solely from an ability to survive postextinction conditions. Instead, it
likely had preexisting adaptations or ecological and evolutionary versatility that allowed it to flourish under the conditions that caused widespread and sustained extinctions among other taxa.
8/ This period of instability was likely key to breaking the incumbency of previously dominant synapsid clades, paving the way for the rise of archosaurs and their relatives as a more complete recovery was achieved later in the Triassic.
Assuming Oneself into Cluelessness
Before starting their working vacation in South Africa, the team had
already assumed evolution and vast ages.
---They assumed the evolutionary
extinction sub-myth about the Permian Extinction.
---They divided up the
deposit according to these time assumptions. ---They assumed the Karoo
Basin collected bones for 4 million Darwin Years.
---The entire analysis and conclusion is based on these assumptions. Q: But
what if they were not true? Q: What if the Karoo Basin formed rapidly, like
in a catastrophic flood that buried all these animals in a single
event? Q: What if evolution had nothing to do with the fossils?
A: Then what
they “know” is all bluffing.
They were dividing up fossils into imaginary time intervals and
assuming evolutionary lines between animals. It could be totally fake,
like a house of cards resting on the word “likely.”
They knew the
Permian myth has its “idiosyncrasies” (i.e., anomalies against
expectations), so they tweaked the narrative
to mold their web of belief around it.
Q: And what if their two sampling sites are not characteristic
of the rest of the vast Karoo Basin?" CEH