Description of Calculations
"Based on the numerical values in Genesis, the life-spans, generation lengths, and childbearing ages were analyzed using an electronic spreadsheet called Mathcad 7 (2). The results were plotted and range of probable values determined, representing the world population at the time the flood
occurred.
The population was calculated using the formula given below. This formula was published by Henry Morris (3) and calculates the population of the world at the time of the Flood. P(n) is the population after n generations which begins with one man and one woman. The number of generations is represented by n. A value for n can be obtained by dividing the total time period by the number of years per generation.
The number of generations that are alive when P(n) is evaluated is represented by x. For example, if x equals 2, the generations that are alive are generations n and n-1. The value of c represents half the number of children in the family. If each family has only two children c would equal 1 and the population growth rate would be zero.
The calculations were made using Mathcad 7 .... Both x and y scales are logarithmic. The number of children per family are varied from 10 to 3. Several "runs" are made using different values for n. The child bearing ages are obtained by dividing 1656 by n. The result is used to establish the average age for childbirth and therefore, the length of each generation. The population is evaluated in five groups, consisting of the following:
Conclusions
Although it is difficult to obtain an actual value of world population at the time of the flood, 5 to17 billion people would appear to be reasonable populations, with
an average of around 10 billion. The best ages for childbirth would be 80.8 to 92 years with 6 to 7 children per family. This would be 20 to 18 generations produced from Adam to the Flood in 1656. The Book of Genesis indicates (Chapter 5) that each family had at least 5 children.
However, Noah apparently had only 3 children. (It is possible that he could have had sons and daughters that aren't recorded and who weren't on the ark.)
Genesis Chapter 5 states that each person had "sons and daughters" in addition to the son whose chronology is given. Since a plural is used to describe the number of sons and daughters, a minimum of two sons and two daughters are assumed. Therefore, a reasonable value would appear to be a range of 5 to 8 children per family.
Using 5 to 8 children per family, the population falls with in a range of ~2 billion to 11.5 billion (over the range of 16 to 22 generations).
It is interesting that today's population of approximately 6 billion fall within this category.
A reasonable value for the antediluvian childbearing age appears to be approximately 90 years. Genesis uses a range of 65 to 500 years, for the first born in the families that are listed. Noah is the only one mentioned who waited 500 years before starting his family. We are not told why. Therefore, Noah is an exception to the standard. (As mentioned above, Noah could have had other sons and daughters who are not recorded.)
The other oldest were Methuselah (187 years), Lamech (182 years) and Jared (162 years). The rest began their families at between 65 and 105 years of age. Adam is listed as being 130 when Seth was born. We don't know his age at the time Cain and Abel were born. The age of the antediluvians when they started their families is rather strange in contrast to today.
If the population reached over a billion, there would tend to be some logistical problems in feeding and caring for the population (clothing, housing, jobs, etc). This indicates that they would have required a higher level of technology than what we currently give them credit for."
Tom Pickett
"Based on the numerical values in Genesis, the life-spans, generation lengths, and childbearing ages were analyzed using an electronic spreadsheet called Mathcad 7 (2). The results were plotted and range of probable values determined, representing the world population at the time the flood
The population was calculated using the formula given below. This formula was published by Henry Morris (3) and calculates the population of the world at the time of the Flood. P(n) is the population after n generations which begins with one man and one woman. The number of generations is represented by n. A value for n can be obtained by dividing the total time period by the number of years per generation.
The number of generations that are alive when P(n) is evaluated is represented by x. For example, if x equals 2, the generations that are alive are generations n and n-1. The value of c represents half the number of children in the family. If each family has only two children c would equal 1 and the population growth rate would be zero.
The calculations were made using Mathcad 7 .... Both x and y scales are logarithmic. The number of children per family are varied from 10 to 3. Several "runs" are made using different values for n. The child bearing ages are obtained by dividing 1656 by n. The result is used to establish the average age for childbirth and therefore, the length of each generation. The population is evaluated in five groups, consisting of the following:
1. Sixteen generations (n=16), each generation is 103.5 years. The life-spans are 900 years (x=9). The calculations begin with 10 children per family and are minimized to 3 children per family.Additional data points were generated, this time assuming that the population may have been between 1 to 40 billion. The same life-spans were used as in the previous (900 years). The generation lengths are also the same (16 to 22). The range of children per family is varied from 8.6 to 4.8. These values appear to be more in line with what is mentioned in scripture. (Although, scripture isn't clear as to what all cases may have been.)
2. Eighteen generations (n=18), each generation is 92 years. The life-spans are 900 years (x=9). The calculations begin with 10 children per family and are minimized to 3 children per family.
3. Twenty generations (n=20), each generation is 82.8 years. The life-spans are 900 years (x=9). The calculations begin with 10 children per family and are minimized to 3 children per family.
4. Twenty-two generations (n=22), each generation is 75.3 years. The life-spans are 900 years (x=9). The calculations begin with 10 children per family and are minimized to 3 children per family.
Conclusions
Although it is difficult to obtain an actual value of world population at the time of the flood, 5 to17 billion people would appear to be reasonable populations, with
However, Noah apparently had only 3 children. (It is possible that he could have had sons and daughters that aren't recorded and who weren't on the ark.)
Genesis Chapter 5 states that each person had "sons and daughters" in addition to the son whose chronology is given. Since a plural is used to describe the number of sons and daughters, a minimum of two sons and two daughters are assumed. Therefore, a reasonable value would appear to be a range of 5 to 8 children per family.
Using 5 to 8 children per family, the population falls with in a range of ~2 billion to 11.5 billion (over the range of 16 to 22 generations).
It is interesting that today's population of approximately 6 billion fall within this category.
A reasonable value for the antediluvian childbearing age appears to be approximately 90 years. Genesis uses a range of 65 to 500 years, for the first born in the families that are listed. Noah is the only one mentioned who waited 500 years before starting his family. We are not told why. Therefore, Noah is an exception to the standard. (As mentioned above, Noah could have had other sons and daughters who are not recorded.)
The other oldest were Methuselah (187 years), Lamech (182 years) and Jared (162 years). The rest began their families at between 65 and 105 years of age. Adam is listed as being 130 when Seth was born. We don't know his age at the time Cain and Abel were born. The age of the antediluvians when they started their families is rather strange in contrast to today.
If the population reached over a billion, there would tend to be some logistical problems in feeding and caring for the population (clothing, housing, jobs, etc). This indicates that they would have required a higher level of technology than what we currently give them credit for."
Tom Pickett
And Adam lived an hundred and thirty years,
and begat a son in his own likeness,
after his image; and called his name Seth:
Genesis 5:3
