Cliodynamics is a transdisciplinary area of research integrating historical macrosociology, cultural and social evolution, economic history/cliometrics, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases.
GENERATIONS Theory (Strauss & Howe)
An average life is 80 years, and consists of four periods of ~20 years
A generation is an aggregate of people born every ~20 years
Each generation experiences "four turnings" every ~80y
50 Year Cycle: (Turchin)
"In the new study, Turchin, who reported his results in the July issue of the Journal of Peace Research, compiled historical data about violent incidents in U.S. history between 1780 and 2010, including riots, terrorism, assassinations and rampages. The data indicates that a cycle of violence repeats itself every 50 years in America, like a wave that peaks in every other generation. This short-term cycle is superimposed over another, longer-term oscillation that repeats every 200 to 300 years.
The slower waves in violence can either augment or suppress the 50-year peaks, depending on how the two cycles overlap.
The longer cycle is "the one which we understand much better, and it is a universal feature of all complex societies," Turchin told Life's Little Mysteries. From the Roman Empire to medieval France to ancient China, scholars have noted that societies swing between 100-150 years of relative peace and 100-150 years of conflict, and then back again. Only some societies exhibit the shorter-term, and less subtle, 50-year-long cycles of violence along the way — the Roman Empire, for one, and if Turchin's theory is correct, the United States as well.
Why 50-year cycles? Turchin explained that a surge of violence begins in the same way as a forest fire: explosively. After a period of escalation followed by sustained violence, citizens begin to "yearn for the return of stability and an end to fighting," he wrote in his paper. The prevailing social mood swings toward stifling the violence at all costs, and those who directly experienced the civil violence maintain the peace for about a human generation — 20 or 30 years. But the stability doesn't last.
Eventually, "the conflict-scarred generation dies off or retires, and a new cohort arises, people who did not experience the horrors of civil war and are not immunized against it. If the long-term social forces that brought about the first outbreak of internal hostilities are still operating, then the society will slide into the second civil war," he wrote. "As a result, periods of intense conflict tend to recur
with a period of roughly two generations (40–60 years)."
Peaks occurred around 1870, 1920 and 1970. Confounding this pattern, there was no peak of U.S. violence in the 1820s. In fact, historians call it the "era of good feelings." Turchin explained that social variables such as wages and employment were "really excellent at that time, so there was no reason for any violence to get going." The cycle was skipped.
But we might not be so lucky this time around. If Turchin's model is right, then the current polarization and inequality in American society will come to a head in 2020. "After the last eight years or so, notice how the discourse in our political class has become fragmented. It's really unprecedented for the last 100 years," he said. "So basically by all measures, there are social pressures for instability that are much worse than 50 years ago."
The heated debate over cliodynamics will continue among historians and scientists. Only time will tell if the cycle of U.S. violence identified by Turchin holds true, and another telltale peak — or lack thereof — is only a few years away."
LiveScience
* As for Turchin's theory, will this crises be a contributor to a time of trouble contributing to a call for the mark of the beast to be implemented?
* As for Strauss & Howe's theory (I dissected their book back in 1991 when it came out while in the Air Force and used their model for an independent study in college applying it to the Merovingian dynasty of France after the fall of the Roman Empire)...the climax of the Crises Era should be around 2012. IF it comes much later the Crises is supposed to be much worse than usual. Well, it's past 2012 by a few years...soooo...get ready....(the Crises Era consists of 4 parts- a spark, regeneration, climax & resolution)
In this Cycle, will this Crises Era of it be the last one of human history?
These cycles (with 4 parts to each cycle-cold winter crises, spring like high, long hot summer of a spiritual awakening and an autumn like unraveling---then it starts over following the crises--this has been going on since the beginning of time) may be winding down world history for the ultimate climax of the ultimate crises era.
GENERATIONS Theory (Strauss & Howe)
- Childhood → Young adult → Midlife → Elderhood
- Baby Boomers → Gen X → Millennials → Post-Millennials ("Homeland Generation")
- High → Awakening → Unraveling → Crisis
50 Year Cycle: (Turchin)
"In the new study, Turchin, who reported his results in the July issue of the Journal of Peace Research, compiled historical data about violent incidents in U.S. history between 1780 and 2010, including riots, terrorism, assassinations and rampages. The data indicates that a cycle of violence repeats itself every 50 years in America, like a wave that peaks in every other generation. This short-term cycle is superimposed over another, longer-term oscillation that repeats every 200 to 300 years.
The longer cycle is "the one which we understand much better, and it is a universal feature of all complex societies," Turchin told Life's Little Mysteries. From the Roman Empire to medieval France to ancient China, scholars have noted that societies swing between 100-150 years of relative peace and 100-150 years of conflict, and then back again. Only some societies exhibit the shorter-term, and less subtle, 50-year-long cycles of violence along the way — the Roman Empire, for one, and if Turchin's theory is correct, the United States as well.
Why 50-year cycles? Turchin explained that a surge of violence begins in the same way as a forest fire: explosively. After a period of escalation followed by sustained violence, citizens begin to "yearn for the return of stability and an end to fighting," he wrote in his paper. The prevailing social mood swings toward stifling the violence at all costs, and those who directly experienced the civil violence maintain the peace for about a human generation — 20 or 30 years. But the stability doesn't last.
Eventually, "the conflict-scarred generation dies off or retires, and a new cohort arises, people who did not experience the horrors of civil war and are not immunized against it. If the long-term social forces that brought about the first outbreak of internal hostilities are still operating, then the society will slide into the second civil war," he wrote. "As a result, periods of intense conflict tend to recur
Peaks occurred around 1870, 1920 and 1970. Confounding this pattern, there was no peak of U.S. violence in the 1820s. In fact, historians call it the "era of good feelings." Turchin explained that social variables such as wages and employment were "really excellent at that time, so there was no reason for any violence to get going." The cycle was skipped.
But we might not be so lucky this time around. If Turchin's model is right, then the current polarization and inequality in American society will come to a head in 2020. "After the last eight years or so, notice how the discourse in our political class has become fragmented. It's really unprecedented for the last 100 years," he said. "So basically by all measures, there are social pressures for instability that are much worse than 50 years ago."
The heated debate over cliodynamics will continue among historians and scientists. Only time will tell if the cycle of U.S. violence identified by Turchin holds true, and another telltale peak — or lack thereof — is only a few years away."
LiveScience
* As for Strauss & Howe's theory (I dissected their book back in 1991 when it came out while in the Air Force and used their model for an independent study in college applying it to the Merovingian dynasty of France after the fall of the Roman Empire)...the climax of the Crises Era should be around 2012. IF it comes much later the Crises is supposed to be much worse than usual. Well, it's past 2012 by a few years...soooo...get ready....(the Crises Era consists of 4 parts- a spark, regeneration, climax & resolution)
In this Cycle, will this Crises Era of it be the last one of human history?
These cycles (with 4 parts to each cycle-cold winter crises, spring like high, long hot summer of a spiritual awakening and an autumn like unraveling---then it starts over following the crises--this has been going on since the beginning of time) may be winding down world history for the ultimate climax of the ultimate crises era.
Tell us, when shall these things be?
and what shall be the sign of thy coming,
and of the end of the world?
Matthew 24:3
* This current 4 part cycle:
High: Late 1940's-early 1960's
Building super power America. Building of the interstate highway system under Eisenhower & suburban Pax-Americana
Awakening: Early 1960's-begining of 1980's
Rise of the "Jesus people", experimenting with religions, civil rights movement, communes, etc.
Unraveling: Early 1980's-2001
The Culture Wars, Perot movement stemming from political cynicism to reform the system, etc.
Crises: 2001-?
-Spark: 9/11
-Regeneration: Restructuring with Homeland Security for the War on Terror
-Climax: ? (due around 2012-if late will be much worse. Natural disaters, War, Economic collapse, social unrest, Pestilence?)
-Resolution: ? (Will the mark of the beast be a resolution?)
Just a thought....
