"Most people have heard of the "wisdom of the crowd," in which individuals in a crowd are privately asked to give an answer to a question, such as how many jelly beans are in a jar. When averaged
together, the answer given by the crowd will generally be better than for any given individual.
The aggregation of many independent estimates can outperform the most accurate individual judgement. This centenarian finding, popularly known as the 'wisdom of crowds', has been applied to problems ranging from the diagnosis of cancer to financial forecasting.
It is widely believed that social influence undermines collective wisdom by reducing the diversity of opinions within the crowd.
We found that averaging consensus decisions was substantially more accurate than aggregating the initial independent opinions.
Remarkably, combining as few as four consensus choices outperformed the wisdom of thousands of individuals." Phys.org
The aggregation of many independent estimates can outperform the most accurate individual judgement. This centenarian finding, popularly known as the 'wisdom of crowds', has been applied to problems ranging from the diagnosis of cancer to financial forecasting.
It is widely believed that social influence undermines collective wisdom by reducing the diversity of opinions within the crowd.
We found that averaging consensus decisions was substantially more accurate than aggregating the initial independent opinions.
Remarkably, combining as few as four consensus choices outperformed the wisdom of thousands of individuals." Phys.org
Every purpose is established by counsel:
Proverbs 20:18